"Apple Time" Update

It has been almost two months since I "went Mac," and it is time for an update.

First, let me say that the Mac has won me over. As I stated in March, I am not going back. This MacBook Pro is truly the best laptop I have ever used, and it does things very well.

The goal was to be able to do all my work on this Mac without resorting to Windows, and I can say that for the most part, that goal has been reached.

Of all the applications I use, the ones that matter are:

• Microsoft Office
• MindJet MindManager
• The BlackBerry
• Keypass
• Sony Digital Recorder software
• Various utilities, such as Telnet and FTP
• Text Editing/Programming software
• Web Browsing

Of the above, the only one that does not support the Mac is the Sony digital recorder software. I was going to add the BlackBerry, but there is an application called "PocketMac" that RIM distributes free -- I have not tried it, but I will.

MS Office 2008 is good -- I installed it about two weeks ago, and it is different from MS Office 2007 for the PC, but compatible. It is certainly workable, and so far, I have had no serious issues. It is important to note that the Microsoft Mac development team is a whole 'nother bunch of people than the Office 2007 team -- but, hey, that is standard issue for Microsoft. I have not had the chance to really work Office 2008, but so far, it works fairly well.

MindJet MindManager's Mac version is not as feature-rich as the Windows version, which is unfortunate, because I really use this software more than any other. The files are all compatible, though, and it works very well -- it just lacks some features that I like.

Keypass is an application that I use to hold my passwords, and I was afraid when starting this experiment that I would have to forgo it -- but, there is KeypassX, which is a Mac version, and it works great! Keypass, by the way, is a requirement. It is the best way I have found to keep track of the myriad passwords that I have, and it is very secure. Security people say you should never write down passwords, and should have hard-to-guess passwords. Well, hard-to-guess passwords are also hard-to-remember passwords. So, people use their pet's or kid's name (hey, I did this too when I started out!). Also, many people use the same password for their work computer, their email apps, their banking apps, and their other web logons. Someone can guess it once, and get into all of it! Keypass makes it easy to manage all of this. I store all my confidential info in Keypass, including SSNs and other information, because it is so secure. Do it!

The utility and text programs are different in a Mac, but are excellent and professional. It is important to note that all the development pros I have seen lately are using Macs, including the guys at Google who released their Google App Engine a few weeks ago.

The goal of this experiment is to see if the Mac is a viable alternative for a PC in a business environment. So far, I have to say that it is not "seamless." There are issues surrounding Mac use in a Windows world. To a Windows-centric IT shop that does not want to work with it, the Mac will not work. This is mainly because hooking up a Mac to a Windows domain, using Windows (Active Directory, really) shares and printers, and authentication, is not the same with a Mac as it is with a PC, and the Mac does have limitations here. So, an IT shop has to look broader: Are there benefits to going Mac that outweigh the limitation of using a Mac with Active Directory? Smaller shops have an easier time, since the impact of architecture changes/accommodations are limited to a few people and locations, and the impact can be made less painful. Larger companies, with ossified IT groups with ossified "change control" protocols and five-year IT roadmaps will just plain not really accommodate a Mac, unless the shop adds it into their plan, which means politics.

On this last note, as I have been studying the Mac and getting it to work in my group, I have seen a lot of IT-avoidance strategies to getting the Mac to work -- some have been used by my own users over the years. Some of these strategies are "unapproved" but basically harmless, and others are "unapproved" and can cause security and other problems. OS X has lessened the second scenario considerably, but the scenarios still exist. So, what happens in a non-Mac environment is what happens to any IT environment where a determined user community loses patience and goes for it: work-arounds and self-support. This has resulted in some rather artistic people, who lean toward the Mac, grinning and bearing the technical aspects of getting these things to work outside the Mac world. The fact that they are succeeding shows the versatility of the Mac (this is not a slight -- I sure would not expect a Windows Active Directory-jockey to design web sites or put together ad layouts).

With that in mind, I do want to point out some of the issues I have uncovered in my travels:

1. The integration to Active Directory was really cool until the security patch came out in March that took out printing to a Windows-based network. This is still an issue. The work-arounds are to either put your windows user name and password on the printer command line (really, really technical, and much deeper into the bowels of this thing than I thought I would ever have to go -- has to do with CUPS) which A. did not work for me, and B. is a security issue, or print directly to a network-attached printer to its IP address. What is its IP address? Exactly. More technical issues and sleuthing required. Sure, doable. But not as cool (or efficient) as choosing a printer from the available list and just printing.

2. Windows Active Directory and OS X's Directory Utility (DU) work well together, but their error checking and correction are not what I would like it to be. Therefore, it is possible to add a Mac to an Active Directory domain with the same name as another computer. This can cause really, really serious problems. I blame Microsoft (since it is its software that is failing, not the Mac), but it is still a problem. This little problem killed our network and brought down our Exchange server.

3. Office 2008's Entourage is pretty cool, but I noticed some definite differences with Outlook (actually, a lot of differences, but most seem to be benign). The main one is that Entourage does not seem to support distribution lists from Outlook in my personal contacts list. You can create a "group" in Entourage, but it does so in your local contact list, not the contacts in your Exchange contact folder. (Disclaimer -- I have not tried hard, but I shouldn't have to!). Again, I blame Microsoft. Entourage is theirs.

4. I was unable to easily open a Word document on a Windows "share" from within Word.

What does all this mean? That the Mac/Windows interface is a pain, and therefore, a problem.

There are three official actions I can take about this:

A. Tear out Windows and Active Directory, or at least build a parallel directory environment using Mac Server,
B. Be aware of the issues and have Mac users (including me) live with them until they eventually go away, or
C. Ban Macs as too much of a problem (while keeping mine, of course!).

Option C is too draconian and actually impossible in my environment. Option A may be the best long-term option, since Microsoft seems determined to fall on their sword with Vista and other super-kludgy software. In this scenario, we reduce Windows and Active Directory as much as possible, root out as much MS software as possible (Exchange? Gone! Office 2007? Gone!), and make the Windows PC's work with LDAP running on Apple servers (can we do this? I don't know. Theoretically, sure. Comments from those that have done it are welcome!).

Option B is the way are are going now, with an active eye on the incremental improvements as OS X gets better and better. Alas, we are not where I wanted to be: Root out PCs and add Macs and be in Nirvana. But, perhaps soon.

Oh, before I close, I did manage to lock up this baby a few times:

1. When I pulled the monitor cable from the laptop before shutting down. Perhaps it is best to do this when the machine is not on. Don't know.
2. When I had lots of apps opened all at once, including Windows on VMWare fusion. Something tweaked.
3. One other time that just seemed out of the blue. Might have been a problem with Firefox -- don't know.

So, they are not crash-proof. But it came back really well each time. Also, I have been just closing the lid and opening the lid, and it just sleeps and awakens like a little baby (only, without the crying part).

Finally, I put in place a local USB drive (a Passport from Western Digital) and set up (as if there is anything to really set up) "Time Machine." Really cool. For those of you old enough to have seen "Star Wars" when it first came out, remember when the Millennium Falcon went into Hyperspace? Well, like that: What a rush! And for backup software! Not only that, but it really works well, and saved me from some serious problems, and I don't have to think about it. The only problem is that I can't have a network drive be the backup drive. I don't know why they don't allow that.

So, bottom line, Vista is failing and people are buying Macs and getting serious about it. I am using one and will not go back. Macs are not quite ready for prime time in the pure Windows business environment, but are usable and worth the effort, and the tsunami is out there and mark my words, by this time next year, the wave will hit and Macs will rule.

Gartner Catches On to Microsoft

Over a year ago, I predicted the end of Microsoft domination. Now, a year and a quarter later, Gartner is catching on and stating that Windows is "collapsing." The reasons stated are the obvious: Vista is seen as too incremental to warrant a migration off of Windows XP, and it has the reputation of being a resource pig.

I have been using a Mac now for a month. I am really, really happy with it. It is not perfect -- the Mac's reputation of being the PC that never crashes is overstated -- but it is a heck of a lot better than XP. 

I find it interesting to find my own mind-set changing, quite without thinking about it. When Google announced its Google App Engine two days ago, I noticed that the demonstrator was demoing it using a Mac. When I have been seeing developers show demos for whatever they are selling, I am seeing them done on a Mac. When you see pictures of a "generic laptop" in ads or in movies, they are always a Macbook. This has been trickling in over the years, but now it is ubiquitous. iTunes sells more music than everyone other that Wal-Mart, and they will overtake Wal-Mart this year. iPod has been the number one music device for years. iPhone is selling very well and has the cache of being the phone to have ("Blackberry or iPhone" is the question. No one else need apply). 

Regarding my mindset, I look at a PC app and think to myself "man, that looks old." When I look at a software provider and I see that it only runs on Windows, I think "man, that is old-school." All of a sudden, the future for applications that people use has only two platforms that matter: The Web (as in Gmail, Twitter, Basecamp, etc.), or Apple Mac. The movement to the web was no surprise. That is a no-brainer, as Google Apps, Salesforce.com, and other "Software as a Service" offerings gain real traction. What surprised me was that Apple would surge back so strong. But, now that I am living the experience, it is no longer a surprise. I love this thing. I'll write more about that in a separate post, but I love this Mac.

Now, I can't ever see myself ever again saying "I love my Windows box." In fact, I can remember only one instance where I ever truly felt that I loved a Windows box, and that was my old 486 running Windows NT circa 1992 -- and then, it was the box I loved (faster that anything!) rather than Windows NT (Registry? What the heck is that? What was ever really wrong with Config.ini?). No, all Windows boxes I have had save the 486 were pains in the neck, but necessary evils, since there were no alternatives. Laptops in 1994, 1995 were Toshibas running Windows 3.1. Windows 95 beta fried my old Toshiba and forced me to swear off forever "beta testing" Microsoft products. Writing code for MS-DOS was quirky, but basically straightforward. Writing Windows code forced me to rely on their super-buggy Microsoft Foundation Classes. I had to debug their software! And pay for it, too! Oh, sure, I could have written my own library of Windows routines, but then about 90% of my code or better would girders and pillars, and only 10% or less would be actual functionality. 

The Mac was always a joy to write code for (although I didn't personally, because the money was not there... Mea Culpa on Windows domination to that degree.) I still have a t-shirt from the 1998 Software Development conference in Santa Clara for CodeWarrier ("Kicking Butt and Writing Code") which was the development tool of choice for many Mac developers and was a great platform, at least from the demo I saw and the people I spoke to.

Next Computer's NextStep operating system and Objective C were unbelievable! And, guess what? They live on in Mac OS X. 

In retrospect, it is surprising that I waited until 2008 to make the jump to Mac. I am not the only one -- it is happening all over. 

Macs are not 100%, yet. They don't fit very easily into a Windows Active Directory world, although they are better, much better, than they used to be. Businesses are still strongly incentivized to use Windows-based PCs and laptops, and general inertia will keep the platform alive in the business sector for several more years. But, it is dying. Businesses will, over time, move more and more to Linux and Open Source for back-office systems like databases, and web applications for user applications, leaving Microsoft in the lurch.

If Gates were still with Microsoft, I would not count Microsoft out. But, he is gone. Microsoft cannot pull off the big come-back without him. It looks like Microsoft's demise is getting obvious.

Robocop is Real!

This, from Wired. The new SWORDS robot that is just about ready for field use in Iraq, and is the real-life version of the ED-209.

An armed robot that is directed by radio. Thus, it is to some degree vulnerable to viruses, or commandeering. When I look to the future, I see these in civilian use for police departments -- crack-house and meth-lab raids, for sure -- and with ubiquity and relatively lax security inherent with having these in hundreds of police precincts instead of one army, there will be an attempt at infiltration.

In any event, sci-fi continues to show that it is closer to reality than one might think!

Apple iPhone Released Tomorrow!

I have been a busy man the last few weeks (months?), but one cannot leave the iPhone phenomenon uncommented.

Being an IT executive, I will not automatically issue iPhones to our company's people, and the reason is not the one cited by "industry experts," to wit, that it is "incompatible with our systems." No, the reason we will not issue it is because it costs a lot of money - three times or more than what I would pay for our standard BlackBerry, and virtually infinitely more expensive than the "free" voice-only we generally get for people who just need a phone. Currently, the iPhone is a really cool toy that does a lot of things well, but which goes above and beyond a business user's requirement for an email-enabled mobile phone.

I say "currently" because if trends go the way they go in Tech, the iPhone could end up a replacement laptop, and then that makes it interesting as a business tool.

Here are my iPhone predictions:

It is a category killer. It will not flop. There is a lot of FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) going around that it is too good to be true, it is too expensive, and therefore, disillusionment will follow, the hype will not be realized, and the iPhone will be a low-selling toy. That is not true. Apple's goal is 1% of market in 2008. They will meet the goal, and therefore, it will be a success. That is ten million units.

I think that if the iPhone stays married to Cingular, it will basically hit that goal. But, I have other predictions (and no, I do not have friends or insight into Apple).

Short Term Prediction:

Lots of sales tomorrow and for a while after, a lull until October, then a surge as Apple releases an updated version. The updated version will use the EDGE 3G network, which is much faster than EDGE. Other updates might include searching and voice recognition. It will easily meet Apple's sales expectations.

Longer Range Predictions:

There will be a "VoIP" version that will NOT use a cellular network, and only runs on WIFI, and will spark the end of Cellular/wireless phones as we know them. Anything that goes to IP drives the cost down to "free." Why pay $60+ per month when you can go to any wired city or Starbucks or Barnes and Noble or home, or anywhere in major cities and converse for FREE? Mark my words, this will happen: 2008 or 2009. Sooner if AT&T/Cingular upsets Apple's customers. To me, this is obvious, and will enable the phone to break free of all mobile networks. Apple may align with a "VoIP" provider, such as Skype, but it won't have to. It could create its own.

The iPhone capability will increase, and will eventually be good enough to be used as a laptop computer. The configuration I see is that people will have a "home based" computer (desktop or laptop) and then the iPhone. Since the iPhone runs OS X, it is a Mac. The later versions will expand on this obvious advantage.

If they do these two things, I see iPhone sales (and successors) well beyond the ten million mark.

Microsoft Prediction

When Bill Gates announced his retirement from Microsoft in July, that, to my mind, marked the end of the "Microsoft Era." Microsoft has been losing ground in the world of personal computing (actually, in computing overall).

Microsoft isn't over, and won't be over for a long time. After all, COBOL, the 1950's era business programming language, is still very much in use. But, Microsoft's dominance is on its way out, to the point where it will be a choice to use Microsoft products, not a requirement. I see this being fully fleshed out by 2010 or 2011.

It is difficult to predict something like "market share" for the PC market. In this world of laptops, BlackBerries and iPhones, what is a PC? Currently, Microsoft has a commanding 95%+ share of the PC market. Does this mean that 95% of all people who have any computing device also has some PC running Windows? I have a BlackBerry, a PC, and an iPod. So, in my case, two out of the three computing devices I have are non-Microsoft. But, there is no doubt that my primary device is a PC.

Perhaps it is enough to say that by the end of 2011, the percentage of people who have Microsoft-based product as their main computing device will drop below 50%. I think that should this statistic occur, it will be obvious: Many businesses will have moved off Windows, people will be using their non-Windows mobile device for their main device (many use their BlackBerries that way now!), and homes will have either a Mac or a Tivo-like Linux device as their main unit.

Why do I think this? Because Bill Gates is Microsoft, and he is leaving. Also, the Microsoft vision of a PC in every home has been achieved. The new vision is "I can get whatever information I need (including entertainment) from my hand-held device."

Vista does not fit into this world. The iPhone does. So does Linux-based wireless kiosks cruising the web.